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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.