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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."